The math
How every comparison is built: what’s counted, the ranges we use, and where each number comes from.
How a comparison works
- We play out 1,000 possible futures. In each one, prices, miles, repairs, resale values, and how long things last are drawn from the ranges on this page.
- Every option lives through the same futures, so a difference comes from the options, not from luck.
- We count how often each option comes out cheaper, and show 20 evenly spaced futures as coins.
- To find what would flip the answer, we run it again with one thing you control changed, until the other option comes out ahead.
What’s counted
Cars: value lost, gas & charging, insurance, upkeep & repairs, taxes & fees, loan interest, battery replacement risk, home charger, incentives. Water heaters: buying & installing, energy, upkeep, leak damage risk, life left at the end, rebates.
Live data
These refresh on their own. When a source doesn’t answer, the tools use the last values we had and show their date.
| Source | Data as of | We check | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel economy and range for every car sold in the USU.S. EPA and Department of Energy (fueleconomy.gov) | Sep 9, 2026 | every 30 days | Live |
| National average fuel pricesU.S. Department of Energy (fueleconomy.gov) | Sep 14, 2026 | every 7 days | Live |
| Weekly retail gasoline prices by state and regionU.S. Energy Information Administration | Sep 7, 2026 | every 7 days | Live |
| Average residential electricity price by state (year to date)U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly table 5.6.B | Jun 2026 | every 30 days | Live |
| Residential natural gas price and use by stateU.S. Energy Information Administration | Jun 2026 | every 30 days | Live |
| Consumer price indexes for car insurance, repairs, and new and used vehiclesU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Aug 2026 | every 30 days | Live |
| Average 60-month new car loan rate at commercial banksFederal Reserve Board, via FRED | May 2026 | every 30 days | Live |
| Statewide monthly temperatures and heating/cooling degree daysNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | Dec 2025 | every 30 days | Live |
Incentives
No federal clean vehicle credit is counted: it ended for cars bought after September 30, 2025. Internal Revenue Service, checked Sep 14, 2026. State and utility rebates vary; add one where the tool asks.
No federal tax credit is counted: the home energy credits ended for equipment installed after December 31, 2025. Internal Revenue Service, checked Sep 14, 2026. State and utility rebates vary; add one where the tool asks.
State tables
Sales tax: State and local sales tax rates, midyear 2026 · checked Sep 14, 2026. Insurance: Auto Insurance Database Report (2023 data) · checked Sep 14, 2026, brought to today with the consumer price index. Extra yearly fees for electric and hybrid cars come from each state’s motor vehicle or revenue department, or a published summary where the state’s own page could not be confirmed.
Yearly extra fees by state, with sources
| State | Electric | Plug-in hybrid | Hybrid | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $203 | $103 | $0 | revenue.alabama.gov |
| Alaska | $0 | $0 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov |
| Arizona | $0 | $0 | $0 | taxfoundation.org |
| Arkansas | $200 | $100 | $50 | dfa.arkansas.gov |
| California | $121 | $0 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov · Road improvement fee on zero-emission cars, indexed to inflation. |
| Colorado | $89.05 | $76.05 | $0 | taxfoundation.org · our estimate · Sources disagree on whether plug-in hybrids pay the full fee. |
| Connecticut | $0 | $0 | $0 | taxfoundation.org |
| Delaware | $110 | $85 | $60 | dmv.de.gov |
| District of Columbia | $0 | $0 | $0 | dmv.dc.gov |
| Florida | $0 | $0 | $0 | billtrack50.com |
| Georgia | $238.59 | $0 | $0 | dor.georgia.gov |
| Hawaii | $50 | $0 | $0 | hidot.hawaii.gov |
| Idaho | $140 | $75 | $0 | legislature.idaho.gov |
| Illinois | $100 | $0 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov · our estimate |
| Indiana | $221 | $74 | $74 | irponline.org · our estimate · Indexed yearly; one source lists $242 and $81. |
| Iowa | $130 | $65 | $0 | legis.iowa.gov |
| Kansas | $165 | $100 | $70 | kwch.com |
| Kentucky | $126 | $126 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov · our estimate · 2025 amount; indexed yearly. |
| Louisiana | $110 | $60 | $60 | law.justia.com |
| Maine | $0 | $0 | $0 | taxfoundation.org |
| Maryland | $125 | $100 | $0 | mva.maryland.gov |
| Massachusetts | $0 | $0 | $0 | taxfoundation.org |
| Michigan | $267 | $113 | $0 | bridgemi.com |
| Minnesota | $150 | $75 | $0 | mada.org · our estimate · Minimum amounts; the fee rises with sticker price. |
| Mississippi | $150 | $75 | $75 | afdc.energy.gov · our estimate · Base amounts; the statute indexes them to inflation. |
| Missouri | $150 | $75 | $0 | dor.mo.gov |
| Montana | $130 | $70 | $0 | archive.legmt.gov |
| Nebraska | $150 | $75 | $0 | nebraskapublicmedia.org |
| Nevada | $0 | $0 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov |
| New Hampshire | $100 | $50 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov |
| New Jersey | $270 | $0 | $0 | chargevc.org · Rises $10 each July. |
| New Mexico | $0 | $0 | $0 | news.bloombergtax.com · A $70 EV fee starts in 2027. |
| New York | $0 | $0 | $0 | taxfoundation.org |
| North Carolina | $214.50 | $107.25 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov |
| North Dakota | $120 | $50 | $0 | northdakotamonitor.com |
| Ohio | $200 | $150 | $100 | nbc4i.com |
| Oklahoma | $110 | $82 | $0 | afdc.energy.gov · our estimate |
| Oregon | $145 | $40 | $40 | oregon.gov · our estimate · Hybrid and plug-in amounts worked out from the fee table for cars over 40 mpg. |
| Pennsylvania | $250 | $63 | $0 | pa.gov |
| Rhode Island | $200 | $100 | $50 | dmv.ri.gov |
| South Carolina | $60 | $30 | $30 | afdc.energy.gov · Billed every two years. |
| South Dakota | $100 | $0 | $0 | legiscan.com · our estimate |
| Tennessee | $200 | $100 | $100 | revenue.support.tn.gov · The EV fee rises to $274 in 2027. |
| Texas | $200 | $0 | $0 | txdmv.gov · Paid as $400 for two years on a new EV. |
| Utah | $180 | $62.25 | $24.25 | connect.udot.utah.gov · our estimate · Sources disagree on the 2026 amounts. |
| Vermont | $89 | $44.50 | $0 | dmv.vermont.gov |
| Virginia | $135.63 | $71.34 | $71.34 | dmv.virginia.gov · our estimate · Non-electric cars pay by mpg; the hybrid figure is for a 50 mpg car. |
| Washington | $225 | $225 | $100 | fiscal.wa.gov · Plug-in hybrids with 30+ miles of electric range pay the EV amount. |
| West Virginia | $200 | $100 | $100 | code.wvlegislature.gov |
| Wisconsin | $175 | $75 | $75 | wisconsindot.gov |
| Wyoming | $100 | $50 | $0 | cleantechnica.com |
Car assumptions
How sure you are about your miles
Nobody knows exactly how far they’ll drive in the years ahead; futures spread around your number by this much.
Range used: centered on ×1, spread 0.1 on a log scale
Our estimate: Spread chosen so 8 in 10 futures land within about ±13% of the miles you enter.
Highway Statistics 2024, table VM-1 · checked Sep 14, 2026Real-world driving vs the window sticker
Speed, climate control, and hills make every car use a little more or less than its label.
Range used: ×0.95 to ×1.15, most often near ×1.03
Our estimate: EPA labels already adjust for real driving; this keeps a modest personal spread around them.
Fuel economy and EV range testing · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly gas price trend
How fast pump prices drift up (or down) on average, before the year-to-year swings.
Range used: 0% to 5%, most often near 2.5%
Our estimate: Long-run nominal growth was about 3% a year since 1991 and under 1% since 2011.
Weekly US regular gasoline price history (1990–2026), used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Year-to-year gas price swings
Gas prices jump around; this is how big a typical yearly jump is.
Range used: ×0.16 (fixed)
Weekly US regular gasoline price history (1990–2026), used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly electricity price trend
How fast home electricity prices rise on average.
Range used: 1% to 4.5%, most often near 3%
Average US electricity price history, used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Year-to-year electricity price swings
Electricity prices move much less than gas from year to year.
Range used: ×0.04 (fixed)
Our estimate: Standard deviation of yearly changes in the US average residential electricity price (BLS, via FRED), 1991–2025: about 3.7%.
Average US electricity price history, used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Fast-charging price
What a public fast charger costs per kilowatt-hour today.
Range used: $0.40 to $0.70, most often near $0.54
Paren DC fast charging price report, Q2 2026 (summary) · checked Sep 14, 2026Public slow-charging price
What a public Level 2 charger (the slow kind at stores and garages) costs per kilowatt-hour.
Range used: $0.20 to $0.45, most often near $0.30
Our estimate: Level 2 pricing varies widely and is often bundled with parking; range is an informed estimate.
Paren DC fast charging price report, Q2 2026 (summary) · checked Sep 14, 2026Plug-in hybrid real-world electric driving
Plug-in hybrids drive on electricity less than their labels assume; this scales the label share.
Range used: ×0.44 to ×1, most often near ×0.7
Real-world usage of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the United States · checked Sep 14, 2026Home charger installed
Buying and installing a Level 2 home charger.
Range used: centered on $1,500, spread 0.35 on a log scale
EV home charging station installation costs · checked Sep 14, 2026Chance your electrical panel needs an upgrade
Some homes need a bigger panel before a charger can go in.
Range used: 25% (fixed)
Our estimate: Share not published; 1 in 4 is an informed estimate.
EV home charging station installation costs · checked Sep 14, 2026Electrical panel upgrade
Cost of a panel upgrade when one is needed.
Range used: $1,500 to $3,000, most often near $2,250
EV home charging station installation costs · checked Sep 14, 2026Insurance for an EV vs a gas car
Beyond costing more because they’re worth more, EVs cost a little more to insure because some repairs cost more.
Range used: ×0.95 to ×1.25, most often near ×1.08
Our estimate: The premium for an EV worth the same as the gas car. Insurance here already rises with the car’s value, and the published EV-versus-gas gaps (AAA 1.06–1.29× by class, Insurify 18% for recent models) mostly reflect higher EV prices.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Electric vehicle insurance costs report · checked Sep 15, 2026Insurance for a plug-in hybrid vs a gas car
Plug-in hybrids sit between hybrids and EVs.
Range used: ×0.95 to ×1.18, most often near ×1.04
Our estimate: AAA does not publish a plug-in row; placed between its hybrid and EV figures, after the same value adjustment as EVs.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Insurance for a hybrid vs a gas car
Hybrids cost about the same to insure as gas cars.
Range used: ×0.95 to ×1.1, most often near ×1.02
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Your insurance vs your state average
Age, record, and coverage choices push each driver above or below the state average.
Range used: centered on ×1, spread 0.3 on a log scale
Our estimate: Spread is an informed estimate of driver-to-driver variation.
Auto Insurance Database Report (2023 data) · checked Sep 14, 2026Car value behind the average premium
Pricier cars cost more to insure; premiums scale partly with value around this typical car.
Range used: $28,000 (fixed)
Our estimate: Average insured vehicle value is not published; Argonne finds insurance tracks value, so a typical fleet value anchors the scaling.
Auto Insurance Database Report (2023 data) · checked Sep 14, 2026Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly insurance price trend
How fast premiums rise each year.
Range used: 1% to 6%, most often near 3%
Consumer price indexes for car insurance, repairs, and new and used vehicles · checked Sep 14, 2026Maintenance, repairs, and tires — gas car
Oil changes, brakes, tires, and typical repairs per mile for a car in its first years.
Range used: $0.08 to $0.13, most often near $0.11
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Maintenance, repairs, and tires — hybrid
Hybrids save on brakes and some engine wear.
Range used: $0.07 to $0.12, most often near $0.10
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Maintenance, repairs, and tires — plug-in hybrid
Plug-in hybrids still have an engine, but it runs less.
Range used: $0.07 to $0.12, most often near $0.10
Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Maintenance, repairs, and tires — EV
No oil changes and less brake wear, but tires wear faster.
Range used: $0.06 to $0.11, most often near $0.09
Our estimate: Blend of AAA 2025 same-class pairs (about 0.88× gas, tires included) and Argonne’s scheduled-maintenance figures (0.60× gas).
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Repairs growing with age
Each year past age 3, upkeep grows by about this share of the early-years cost.
Range used: 7% to 14%, most often near 10%
Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Local repair prices
Shop rates and parts prices differ by area and by how you service the car.
Range used: centered on ×1, spread 0.15 on a log scale
Our estimate: Spread is an informed estimate.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly repair price trend
How fast repair and maintenance prices rise.
Range used: 2% to 5%, most often near 3.5%
Consumer price indexes for car insurance, repairs, and new and used vehicles · checked Sep 14, 2026EV battery replacement chance per year (after warranty)
Modern EV batteries rarely need replacing; the chance is small but real after year 8.
Range used: 0.1% to 1%, most often near 0.4%
Our estimate: Derived from Recurrent’s replacement shares (under 4% of EVs overall, far fewer for recent models) spread over the years after the warranty; informed estimate.
How long do EV batteries last? · checked Sep 14, 2026EV battery replacement cost
What a replacement pack costs if one is needed.
Range used: $8,000 to $22,000, most often near $14,000
Our estimate: Recurrent’s 2024 installed prices run from about $4,000 (older Leaf) to $22,000 (Model S); a Model 3 is about $15,800 with labor. Pack prices are falling.
EV battery replacement costs · checked Sep 15, 2026Hybrid battery replacement chance per year (after warranty)
Hybrid batteries usually outlast the car, but some need replacing late in life.
Range used: 0.5% to 3%, most often near 1.5%
Our estimate: No primary failure-rate source found for hybrid packs; informed estimate.
How long do EV batteries last? · checked Sep 14, 2026Hybrid battery replacement cost
Independent shops often replace hybrid packs for far less than dealers.
Range used: $1,500 to $5,000, most often near $3,000
Our estimate: Informed estimate from shop pricing reports.
How long do EV batteries last? · checked Sep 14, 2026Plug-in hybrid battery replacement cost
Plug-in packs are smaller than EV packs.
Range used: $3,000 to $12,000, most often near $7,000
Our estimate: Recurrent lists Chevy Volt packs at $3,000–8,500; newer plug-ins carry larger packs.
EV battery replacement costs · checked Sep 15, 2026Resale hit per extra 1,000 miles
Every 1,000 miles above about 12,000 a year trims the resale value by this share.
Range used: ×0 to ×0, most often near ×0
Our estimate: Our estimate of a typical resale-guide mileage adjustment. The 12,000-mile baseline sits near the national average; AAA’s cost study assumes 15,000.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Highway Statistics 2024, table VM-1 · checked Sep 14, 2026How closely EV resale follows the whole used-car market
EV values move with the used market but also swing on their own.
Range used: ×0.5 (fixed)
Our estimate: Correlation is an informed estimate.
Cars that hold their value (5-year depreciation study, 2026) · checked Sep 14, 2026Title and dealer paperwork fees
One-time fees when you buy.
Range used: $200 to $900, most often near $450
Our estimate: Varies by state and dealer; informed estimate.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly registration
Plates and registration renewal, before any extra EV fee.
Range used: $60 to $500, most often near $180
Our estimate: States differ widely (some charge by value); informed estimate.
Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Your loan rate vs the bank average
Dealer financing and credit scores move rates above or below the published average.
Range used: ×0.01 (fixed)
Our estimate: Published rate is for commercial bank 60-month loans; +1 point reflects typical borrower spread.
Average 60-month new car loan rate at commercial banks · checked Sep 14, 2026
How much of its price a car keeps
Typical share of the new price a car is still worth, by age. Futures spread from the low to the high value.
| Type | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 8 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 80%72–86% | 62%54–70% | 48%40–57% | 32%24–40% | 24%17–32% |
| Hybrid | 82%75–88% | 66%58–74% | 54%45–62% | 37%28–45% | 28%20–36% |
| Plug-in hybrid | 76%66–84% | 54%44–63% | 42%33–51% | 26%18–34% | 19%12–26% |
| Electric | 70%58–80% | 50%38–60% | 37%28–47% | 22%14–31% | 15%9–23% |
Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles (ANL/ESD-21/4) · checked Sep 14, 2026Your Driving Costs, 2025 edition · checked Sep 14, 2026Cars that hold their value (5-year depreciation study, 2026) · checked Sep 14, 2026
Starting car prices
Until you type a price, a new car starts at its maker’s starting price when it’s listed below, and otherwise at the average price paid for its kind of car. Hybrids start 5% higher, plug-in hybrids 15%, and electric cars 10%. Those premiums are our estimate: the average electric car sold for about 9% more than the average car in August 2026 (Kelley Blue Book), and the hybrid and plug-in premiums are informed guesses. Both are brought to today with the new-car price index. A used or kept car starts from that price times the share of value a car its age usually keeps.
| Car | Starting price | What it is, and where from |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid | $33,350 | LE, including $1,450 destination. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Toyota RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid | $42,950 | Plug-in Hybrid SE, including destination. Kelley Blue Book · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Honda CR-V | $32,315 | LX, $30,920 plus $1,395 destination. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Honda CR-V Hybrid | $37,025 | Sport Hybrid, $35,630 plus $1,395 destination. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Toyota Corolla Cross | $26,085 | L, $24,635 plus $1,450 destination. Toyota · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Toyota Corolla Cross Hybrid | $30,445 | Hybrid S, $28,995 plus $1,450 destination. Toyota · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Toyota Camry Hybrid | $31,050 | LE, $29,600 plus $1,450 destination. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Honda Accord | $28,395 | LX, including destination. Kelley Blue Book · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Tesla Model Y Electric | $41,630 | Standard RWD, $39,990 plus $1,640 destination and order fee. Cars.com · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Tesla Model 3 Electric | $38,630 | Standard RWD, $36,990 plus destination and order fee. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Toyota Highlander | $46,270 | XLE AWD, including destination. Edmunds · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Nissan Rogue | $30,635 | S, including destination. Kelley Blue Book · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Mazda CX-5 | $31,485 | 2.5 S, $29,990 plus $1,495 destination. Mazda · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2027 Toyota Prius Hybrid | $28,755 | LE, including destination. Kelley Blue Book · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Chevrolet Equinox | $30,295 | LT, $28,800 plus $1,495 destination. iSeeCars · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Chevrolet Equinox Electric | $36,490 | Equinox EV LT 1, $34,995 plus $1,495 destination. TrueCar · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Kia Niro Hybrid | $28,485 | Niro FE, $27,090 plus $1,395 destination. Kia · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| 2026 Kia Niro Electric | $41,095 | Niro EV Wind, $39,700 plus $1,395 destination. Kia · checked Sep 14, 2026 |
| Compact car | $27,997 |
|---|---|
| Mid-size car | $33,909 |
| Compact SUV | $37,722 |
| Mid-size SUV | $50,315 |
| Minivan | $49,151 |
| Small or mid-size pickup | $43,806 |
| Full-size pickup | $67,446 |
| Entry luxury car | $60,618 |
| Luxury compact SUV | $54,963 |
| Luxury mid-size SUV | $74,605 |
| Vehicle | $50,089 |
Average transaction prices by segment, August 2026 · checked Sep 14, 2026
Water heater assumptions
How much hot water your household really uses
Homes with the same number of people use more or less hot water; futures spread around the typical amount.
Range used: centered on ×1, spread 0.25 on a log scale
Our estimate: Spread chosen so 8 in 10 futures land within about ±30% of the survey median for your household size.
Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020 microdata · checked Sep 14, 2026Efficiency of a new gas tank
Share of the gas burned that ends up as hot water, including heat lost while it sits.
Range used: ×0.58 to ×0.7, most often near ×0.64
Our estimate: Standard new tanks rate about 0.58–0.70; ENERGY STAR gas tanks start at 0.81 and cost more.
ENERGY STAR water heater specification and certified heat pump water heaters · checked Sep 14, 2026Uniform test method for water heaters (10 CFR 430, Appendix E) · checked Sep 14, 2026Efficiency of a new electric tank
Nearly all the electricity becomes heat; a little leaks away while water sits.
Range used: ×0.9 to ×0.95, most often near ×0.92
Our estimate: Typical rated range for standard electric tanks.
Uniform test method for water heaters (10 CFR 430, Appendix E) · checked Sep 14, 2026Real-world efficiency of a gas tankless heater
Rated near 0.95, but short, frequent draws waste some heat in everyday use.
Range used: ×0.78 to ×0.92, most often near ×0.84
Our estimate: ENERGY STAR minimum 0.95, reduced for the losses of short draws seen in field studies.
ENERGY STAR water heater specification and certified heat pump water heaters · checked Sep 14, 2026Rated efficiency of a heat pump water heater
A heat pump moves heat from the air into the water, so it delivers 3 to 4 units of heat per unit of electricity on the test stand.
Range used: ×3.2 to ×4.03, most often near ×3.68
ENERGY STAR water heater specification and certified heat pump water heaters · checked Sep 14, 2026Heat pump in a real home vs the test
In homes, heat pump water heaters deliver less than the label, most of all in cold basements and garages.
Range used: ×0.55 to ×0.95, most often near ×0.75
Our estimate: NEEA measured an average of 2.0 across 30 homes against labels near 2.4–3.4 at the time.
Heat pump water heater field study (E13-266) · checked Sep 14, 2026How much gas prices jump year to year
Typical yearly swing in home natural gas prices.
Range used: 7.7% (fixed)
Our estimate: Standard deviation of yearly changes in US residential gas prices, 2005–2025.
Residential natural gas price and use by state · checked Sep 14, 2026Long-run change in gas prices
How fast home gas prices drift up each year, before swings.
Range used: 0% to 4%, most often near 2%
Our estimate: Range around the long-run rise in US residential gas prices.
Residential natural gas price and use by state · checked Sep 14, 2026How much electricity prices jump year to year
Typical yearly swing in home electricity prices.
Range used: 3.7% (fixed)
Our estimate: Standard deviation of yearly changes in the US average residential electricity price (BLS, via FRED), 1991–2025: about 3.7%.
Average US electricity price history, used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Long-run change in electricity prices
How fast home electricity prices drift up each year, before swings.
Range used: 1% to 4.5%, most often near 3%
Our estimate: Range around recent US residential price growth.
Average residential electricity price by state (year to date) · checked Sep 14, 2026Average US electricity price history, used for price swings · checked Sep 14, 2026Installed price: gas tank
A 40–50 gallon gas tank, installed, replacing a gas tank.
Range used: $1,600 to $2,800, most often near $2,200
Our estimate: National cost-guide ranges; your quote replaces this.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Installed price: electric tank
A 40–50 gallon electric tank, installed, replacing an electric tank.
Range used: $1,200 to $2,200, most often near $1,700
Our estimate: National cost-guide ranges; your quote replaces this.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Installed price: gas tankless
A whole-home gas tankless heater, installed, often with new venting or a bigger gas line.
Range used: $2,500 to $5,600, most often near $4,250
Our estimate: National cost-guide ranges; your quote replaces this.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Installed price: heat pump water heater, replacing electric
Real installation costs from program data, replacing an electric tank.
Range used: $3,500 to $5,000, most often near $4,200
Home electrification cost estimates · checked Sep 14, 2026Installed price: heat pump water heater, replacing gas
Replacing gas usually adds a 240-volt circuit and a drain line.
Range used: $4,100 to $6,800, most often near $5,400
Home electrification cost estimates · checked Sep 14, 2026Adding a gas line and venting
Extra work to put a gas heater where there was none, if gas service reaches the house.
Range used: $1,000 to $3,000, most often near $1,800
Our estimate: Cost-guide ranges for running a new gas line and vent; varies widely with distance.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Adding a 240-volt circuit
Extra wiring to put an electric tank where a gas one was.
Range used: $300 to $1,500, most often near $800
Our estimate: Cost-guide ranges for a new dedicated circuit; a panel upgrade costs more.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026How long a gas tank lasts
Years until it leaks or fails and needs replacing.
Range used: 8 years to 18 years, most often near 12 years
Our estimate: Centered on LBNL’s median of 12 years (mean 13.9).
Residential appliance lifetime estimates (Lutz et al.) · checked Sep 14, 2026How long an electric tank lasts
Years until it leaks or fails and needs replacing.
Range used: 6 years to 20 years, most often near 10 years
Our estimate: Shaped after LBNL’s wide spread for electric tanks (median 9.6, mean 12.5 years).
Residential appliance lifetime estimates (Lutz et al.) · checked Sep 14, 2026How long a tankless heater lasts
Tankless units last longer when descaled.
Range used: 12 years to 25 years, most often near 20 years
Our estimate: Manufacturer and cost-guide claims; few independent lifetime studies exist.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026How long a heat pump water heater lasts
A tank plus a small heat pump; the tank sets the upper limit.
Range used: 8 years to 16 years, most often near 13 years
Our estimate: Tank lifetimes from LBNL, trimmed for the extra parts; long-run field data are still thin.
Residential appliance lifetime estimates (Lutz et al.) · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly upkeep: tank
Occasional flushing and an anode rod now and then.
Range used: $0 to $60, most often near $20
Our estimate: Many owners do nothing; a pro flush runs about $100–200 every few years.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly upkeep: tankless
Descaling to keep minerals from clogging it, more often with hard water.
Range used: $60 to $300, most often near $170
Our estimate: Professional flushes cost $150–350; some owners do it themselves or less often.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Yearly upkeep: heat pump
Cleaning the air filter and checking the drain line, plus tank flushing.
Range used: $10 to $100, most often near $40
Our estimate: Tank upkeep plus a few small parts over its life.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026Chance a failing tank damages the house
Most tanks fail by leaking; some leaks soak floors or walls before anyone notices.
Range used: 5% to 30%, most often near 15%
Our estimate: About 7 in 10 failures are leaks or bursts; the share that causes real damage is our estimate.
Water heater failure and leak claim figures (IBHS, summarized) · checked Sep 14, 2026What leak damage costs you
Out-of-pocket cleanup when a leak does damage, after any insurance.
Range used: $300 to $4,500, most often near $1,000
Our estimate: Average insurance claims run about $4,400; typical deductibles and uninsured cleanup set the lower end.
Water heater failure and leak claim figures (IBHS, summarized) · checked Sep 14, 2026Heat a heat pump water heater pulls from your home in winter
Indoors, it cools the room slightly, so your heating runs a little more in cold months.
Range used: 30% to 90%, most often near 60%
Our estimate: Share of that cooling your heating system must make up; lower for garages and basements.
Heat pump water heater field study (E13-266) · checked Sep 14, 2026How fast installation prices rise
Used when a heater wears out and is replaced later.
Range used: 1% to 4.5%, most often near 2.5%
Our estimate: Near general inflation for equipment and plumbing labor.
Installed water heater price ranges from national cost guides · checked Sep 14, 2026
Every source
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